AFTERNOON POST:  MAY 17,  2008

Posted at 4:04 p.m.

POLLS

Actually, the only new polls out today come from Rasmussen, who reports McCain leading Obama in the general, 45-44 percent.  Ras also reports a tie between McCain and Clinton.

Rasmussen did not report any new results for the Democratic nomination, which he's already declared decided in Obama's favor.

In the next few days we'll see the first polling done after the Bush/Obama dustup.  My guess is that the clash hurt Obama, but we'll wait for the numbers.

One fascinating result that Ras reports is that John McCain's favorables are slightly higher than Barack Obama's.  McCain is viewed favorably by 50 percent, Obama by 48.  Rasmussen observes:

Despite the ups and downs of the campaigns over the past month, the race for the White House has remained quite stable. For the past month, Obama’s support in a general election match-up has been between 42% and 47% every single day. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 48%. During the past 30 days, the candidates have been within two percentage points of each other eighteen times, including each of the last eight days.

I can't imagine the Obama campaign being very encouraged by those numbers.  Even after the press declared Hillary Clinton history, Obama's numbers did not climb in this, a heavily Democratic year. 

May 17, 2008.

SATURDAY:  MAY 17,  2008

Posted at 6:58 p.m. ET

OBAMA'S BLAME GAME

Nobody plays it better than Barack Obama.  He's blamed every embarrassing moment in his campaign on poor staff work.  Never have I heard him say, "I take full responsibility..."

Now he has an explanation for his expected loss on Tuesday in Kentucky. 

Obama has been trying to introduce himself to Kentuckians using a series of biographical TV ads, as well as fliers, including one that shows him at a pulpit in front of a church’s cross and pipe organ.

He acknowledged that he’s trying to “reverse a lot of misconceptions” about his background. He is a Christian, although some e-mail chains have said he is a Muslim.

“Part of it is because there have been these e-mails that have been sent out very systematically, presumably by various political opponents, although I don’t know who,” he said. “And there are a lot of voters who get their news from Fox News. Fox has been pumping up rumors about my religious beliefs or my patriotism or what have you since the beginning of the campaign.”

We all knew it was Fox News.  If America is deprived of Barack Obama in November, it will be because of Greta Van Susteren.  You knew that, didn't you?

Here's the problem:  Fox also beams to Oregon, where Obama is expected to win easily this Tuesday.  Fox also has infiltrated North Carolina, where Obama won a few weeks back.  Is there a secret serum, a Fox News antidote, in these states?  Inquiring minds want to know.

So, in the last few days Senator Obama has gone into near-hysterics over a sane and routine comment President Bush made in Israel, and is blaming Fox News, in part at least, for problems in Kentucky. 

Commander-in-chief material.

May 17, 2008.      Permalink          

BLAME BUSH!

The Wall Street Journal, practically giddy, reflects on that near-hysterical reaction by the Democrats to Bush's Israel speech.  The reaction seems to be continuing.  The Dems and their journalist friends won't shut up about it:

If nothing else, we now know what it takes to make a Democrat go nuts. One word: "appeasement."

Notwithstanding that President Bush named no names in his speech to Israel's Knesset on Thursday, Barack Obama instantly called it a "false political attack." On him, of course.

To House Speaker Nancy Pelosi it was "beneath the dignity of the office of the President."

"Offensive and outrageous," thundered Hillary Clinton from somewhere in South Dakota, followed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: "reckless and irresponsible."

When the party's top four Democrats come roaring out of the blocks in unison, something has hit a nerve.

And...

Mr. Obama asserted again yesterday that he will not meet with terrorists. He is, however, willing to meet with Iran or Syria. Virtually no serious person disputes that Iran has shipped weaponry to terrorists in Iraq and that Syria has provided safe haven to these terrorists and let them cross from Syria into Iraq. In turn, these jihadists have killed U.S. soldiers. At a minimum, one might expect that ceasing this lethal activity would be a "precondition" before committing the office of the presidency to meet with either.

And...

Leaving no argument unturned, Democrats have reached back to Richard Nixon's trip to China and Ronald Reagan's negotiations with the Soviet Union as evidence that Republican Presidents "talk to the enemy." Put it this way: The day Iran brings forth a Chou Enlai and Syria a Mikhail Gorbachev, sure, give them a call.

Good way to put it.  This issue will not disappear, and I don't think the Obamans helped themselves this week by appearing so thin-skinned about it. 

May 17, 2008.       Permalink          

WITH A GRAIN OF SALT

Veteran political writer Walter Shapiro takes on the role of curmudgeon in downplaying political news this early in the campaign.  He's right, more or less.  We print poll results here every day, but always with the caveat that they indicate trends, not precise measurements, and we note that unexplored factors, like press coverage, can twist the final result.  Shapiro:

In truth, May horse-race polls have the predictive powers of a 7-year-old dressed up as a swami and using an upside down goldfish bowl to peer into the future. In the last five presidential elections, the Gallup Poll conducted right before Memorial Day got the eventual winner of the national popular vote wrong. From Michael Dukakis's 13-percentage-point lead in 1988 to John Kerry's 4-point edge in 2004, the Gallup Poll (like other national surveys) pointed in precisely the wrong direction. The only unequivocal success story was 1996, when Gallup (along with virtually every sentient American) figured out that the then-youthful Bill Clinton would handily defeat Bob Dole, the oldest first-time presidential nominee in history (McCain included).

Okay, well stated.  But there are things happening now that will impact the election, and that are useful for an informed public.  The vetting of Barack Obama, ignored for months when Clinton's nomination was assumed, is ongoing, and has revealed the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., among other things.  And the polls now provide indicators of how the American people are approaching the race.  Clinton's remarkable strength in poll numbers clearly reveals questions about Obama.  And McCain's strength shows that the voters see the presidency as a special case, not given to simple Republican or Democratic preferences. 

Poll numbers coming this afternoon.

May 17, 2008.       Permalink          

OUR FRIENDS, THE SAUDIS

President Bush got almost nothing from our Saudi "allies" in his visit to the kingdom yesterday.  The president wanted an oil production increase to try to bring down prices. 

But don't worry about a backlash against these stalwarts.  Saudi Arabia has bought off so many college professors and former diplomats in this country, and has such clout through the oil industry, that it will suffer no pain, any more than it did when we learned that 15 of the 19 hijackers of 9-11 were Saudis.

The Washington Post reports the friendly details. 

Bush has invested enormously in improving his personal ties to King Abdullah, and administration officials say the effort has paid off in greater cooperation in fighting terrorism, confronting Iran and other shared concerns.

But the limits to this warmth were on full display as Bush arrived in Saudi Arabia for his second visit of the year and was whisked off for private consultations and dinner with the king at his palatial horse farm near Riyadh. Not only did the Saudis resist efforts to boost production even more -- as many congressional leaders are demanding -- they also pointedly said that the extra output was a week-old response to commercial customers, not to the president. And they made clear their unhappiness with Bush's emotional speech Thursday to the Israeli Knesset.

For those two multiculturalists who visit Urgent Agenda, and wish to show their understanding of the Saudi position and respect for Saudi customs, I reprint here, as a public service, the Saudi national anthem.  You can sing along the next time you're at the gas pump:

Hasten to glory and supremacy!
Glorify the Creator of the heavens
And raise the green, fluttering flag,
Carrying the emblem of Light!
Repeat - God is greatest!
O my country,
My country, may you always live,
The glory of all Muslims!
Long live the King,
For the flag and the country!

I paid $4.17 a gallon yesterday.

Be back later, fueled up.

May 17, 2008.      Permalink